Making sure aviation is not a future insulating bubble

Alice Bell writes in the Guardian "Why we’re all everyday climate change deniers" and worries about the apathy of the general population:

A few years ago I saw a climate scientist glumly sitting on a table in a seminar room, swinging his legs, quietly sketching out the vision of the future that kept him awake at night. His picture wasn’t an all-out dystopia where we’ve destroyed humanity. What scared him was a future where we do take action on climate change, but only some. A few rich people live in a comfortable bubble they’ve managed to insulate themselves in, and everyone else is left to battle the storms. Perhaps those lucky few notice the plight of the people they’ve left behind. Or perhaps they insulate themselves from that too.

A great example of the apathy that Bell is arguing about is the celebration by the ICAO on 7 December of International Civil Aviation Day and its embrace of a goal of 'no country left behind' in civil aviation growth. This is manifestly mad as several mainstream commentators have pointed out for example: "Aviation could consume a quarter of 1.5C carbon budget by 2050".

We have to change this urgently. Bell says "Perhaps those lucky few notice the plight of the people they’ve left behind. Or perhaps they insulate themselves from that too." Flying at 30,000 feet can have that effect.

Bell concludes:

That future is possible. It might even be probable. But it’s not inevitable. We can choose to see climate change, and we can choose to do this before it’s too late. So how can we escape the quagmire of denial? As it turns out, the first step isn’t that hard: just talk about it. To your friends, family, colleagues – even to yourself. By talking about climate change, you’ll make it feel less scary. By talking about it, we’ll unlock solutions. And, crucially, it’s by talking about climate change that we’ll break the silence that allows it to go unnoticed and ignored.

On this theme, Rob Hopkins of Transition Towns recalls an interesting discussion he recently had with millennials in France: "Can we learn to embrace a future of less flying?" He explains it in terms of 5 stages of grief about the changed future ahead of us.

But maybe grief is not correct. I see that Voyagevert is seeking crowd funding for a proposal for trans-atlantic passenger sail ferries as an alternative to long haul flights. What exactly do we think we are losing if this amazing option is the alternative?







   

Why the climate crisis is different from any previous political crisis

Interesting article "The Soviet Union collapsed overnight. Don’t assume western democracy will last for ever" by Paul Mason in the Guardian. Mason argues that we should not assume democracy will simply last. Things can change very quickly - he points to the collapse of Soviet Union and now the election of Trump in the US (and I would add, the NZ PM John Key stood down yesterday). But Mason points to the hope that comes from the fact that Russian activists have seen seemingly eternal regimes fall within days and therefore "possess a diamond-hard belief in change."
By contrast, climate change looks a lot harder if we reach a point where things run away on us. Nature will be that seemingly 'eternal regime' and while we have a lot of science that suggests that things can go bad very quickly, we dont have much evidence that they can be reversed with equal and unexpected rapidity. Imagine how dispiriting that will be. It will be new territory for humanity. Who knows what governance and society will look under that burden. What story do you give to people about their future? What do you teach to children? Hence the need to take very bold steps now.
Otherwise an ordinary day here, lots of media about arctic ice levels being astonishing low for winter, and big cracks in the Antarctic ice sheets, but alarm is mostly limited to the usual circles of scientists and liberal/environmental media. The crisis is absolutely staring us in the face. Lots is being done, and in the background a sweeping transformation of energy production and consumption is well underway, but still, by any metric, to little, too late. We wait for the really bold interventions that shout 'wake up' to everyone. And everyone here prepares for their flying Xmas holidays

Why focus on aviation?

Air travel is the highest personal consumption of fossil fuels an individual can undertake. It is the best exemplar of the problem of the fossil fuel and climate change, with air travel by jet being enormously convenient, desirable, and readily available to millions around the globe. Crucially, there is no replacement technology for current modes of air travel that can scale up fast enough in the small time left to prevent dangerous or now runaway climate change. This is fully accepted by the industry itself, which proposes massive offsetting (the recent ICAO agreement). Accordingly, large scale reduction in air travel is urgently required.

Therefore, being open to taking that step is an excellent indicator of personal understanding of the seriousness of the climate crisis. An example is this video about a group of pro surfers who have stopped flying and are focused on enjoying local surf breaks.

Beyond The Break from The Perennial Plate on Vimeo.

When millions are taking that step and governments are openly talking about drastically reducing air travel as policy, it will be an indicator that the fight against dangerous climate change is engaged at the right level and we have given ourselves our best chance of being successful.

Why I am writing this diary

Starting this climate diary to keep a record of the language used around the climate crisis, with particular focus on aviation and cognitive dissonance. Inspiration is I Shall Bear Witness. The Diaries of Klemperer. Hoping that last entries will cover our emerging from this crisis.